South Africans could get through winter without load shedding if Eskom’s latest outlook holds.

The power utility said on Wednesday, 22 April 2026, that it expects a stable electricity supply from 1 April to 31 August 2026. Eskom said the grid has stayed reliable after the end of summer and that its recovery plan is now embedded in daily operations.

Eskom Forecasts a Stable Winter

Eskom said the 2026 winter season will be supported by a more resilient power system. The utility said improved reliability across its generation fleet has helped it prepare for higher winter demand without scheduling load shedding.

According to Eskom, South Africa has now gone 341 consecutive days without load shedding. That run has been backed by a 98.9% electricity supply rate in the 2025/26 financial year, covering the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026.

What is Driving the Improved Outlook

Eskom said the stronger outlook comes from a 5.2GW reduction in unplanned losses and a further 1.1GW added through demand-side management programmes. It said this gives the system a peak surplus of about 6GW over winter.

The utility has also lowered its base-case assumption for unplanned outages to about 12GW, down from 13GW in the previous winter outlook. Eskom said even if unplanned losses rise to around 14GW, the system should still remain stable under the scenarios it is planning for.

Diesel Costs Fall as Performance Improves

Eskom’s Group Executive for Generation, Bheki Nxumalo, said the utility has sharply reduced its diesel dependence. He said Eskom saved R26.9 billion compared to the 2023 financial year because of better maintenance discipline and project delivery.

The utility also said its Energy Availability Factor improved from 54.55% in FY2023 to about 65.35% in FY2026. Unplanned losses fell from 16.5GW to roughly 9.1GW by 31 March 2026.

The Pressure Points Still Ahead

Eskom chief executive Dan Marokane said the current stability gives South Africa a stronger platform for growth and future energy planning. But the utility also warned that delays in adding new generation capacity could create risks between 2029 and 2030.