South African petrol drivers could get some relief before the December holidays, with early projections pointing to a price cut of around R2 a litre. Diesel users, however, could face another increase.

TopAuto reported on 9 November that Central Energy Fund (CEF) data showed potential reductions for both fuels before levy changes. But the partial withdrawal of temporary fuel levy relief could push diesel prices higher. These are early estimates, not confirmed December adjustments.

What motorists could pay

Using the figures listed by TopAuto and accounting for the scheduled levy increases, the indicative changes work out to:

  • Petrol 93: A decrease of approximately R1.74 per litre.
  • Petrol 95: A decrease of approximately R2.04 per litre.
  • Diesel 0.05%: A wholesale increase of approximately R1.23 per litre.
  • Diesel 0.005%: A wholesale increase of approximately 88c per litre.

These calculations assume the reported recovery figures hold and exclude any other adjustments. At R2.04 less per litre, buying 50 litres of petrol 95 would cost R102 less.

Why diesel could rise

The difference comes down to how much temporary tax relief is being withdrawn.

SARS notices show that the petrol levy reduction will shrink from R1.50 to R1 per litre from 2 December. Diesel relief will fall from R3 to R1.50 per litre.

That effectively adds 50c back to petrol and R1.50 back to diesel compared with November’s levy levels. The smaller reductions remain in place until 5 January 2027.

For diesel, that additional levy would outweigh the underlying price relief reflected in the figures reported by TopAuto.

December prices are not final

South Africa’s fuel prices are adjusted monthly. International petroleum prices, the rand-dollar exchange rate and levies all influence the final decision, according to the government’s November announcement.

November also showed why motorists should wait for the official figures. Both petrol grades ultimately fell by just 1c per litre, while diesel received larger reductions.

For now, a cheaper December petrol bill remains a possibility. The final adjustment will depend on the full review period and any further levy changes.