South Africa’s property market is heading into a tense period as rising conflict in the Middle East adds fresh uncertainty to the South African Reserve Bank’s next interest rate decision.

The Monetary Policy Committee is due to announce its next rates decision on Thursday, 26 March. That decision carries added weight for homeowners, buyers and anyone hoping for cheaper borrowing costs in 2026.

REMAX Southern Africa CEO and regional director Adrian Goslett said the outlook has become more complicated in recent weeks. Earlier this year, many economists expected more rate relief as inflation stayed contained and economic growth remained weak. That picture has now shifted.

Oil Prices are Back in Focus

Higher geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices up, raising fears of renewed inflation pressure. Because South Africa depends heavily on imported fuel, any sustained rise in global oil prices could feed directly into transport costs, production costs and everyday consumer prices.

Goslett said if those pressures spill into local fuel prices and broader household costs, the Reserve Bank may choose to stay cautious instead of moving faster on rate cuts.

South Africa entered 2026 with the repo rate at 6.75% after easing began in late 2025. That had raised hopes for more cuts this year. For now, that path looks far less certain.

Why the Reserve Bank may Hold Steady

Economists have warned that sustained oil pressure could complicate the inflation outlook.

Goslett said if oil prices remain high or the rand weakens because of global instability, the SARB may keep rates unchanged for longer while watching inflation risks. But he added that if the oil spike proves temporary and local inflation stays under control, further rate cuts could still happen later in the year.

That makes the next few weeks critical.

Stability Still Matters for Buyers

Even without another cut, a steady rates decision could still help the housing market.

Goslett said stability in borrowing costs matters almost as much as lower rates. While a cut would ease pressure on homeowners and buyers, a period of steady rates can also support confidence and help people plan their finances better.

For South Africans already stretched by living costs, that certainty may matter just as much as any short-term rate relief.