South African pork producers are grappling with outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) and Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), leading to significant supply disruptions and rising pork prices in South Africa. The South African Pork Producers’ Organisation (SAPPO) has reported four confirmed ASF outbreaks in Gauteng since November 2025, alongside seven confirmed or suspected FMD cases in commercial piggeries across the Free State, North West, and KwaZulu-Natal. These diseases have resulted in the loss of approximately 7,000 pigs in the formal market, according to industry communications.

Wholesale pork prices have climbed from about R32 per kilogram to R40 per kilogram in recent weeks, with further increases anticipated as the effects ripple through the supply chain. Arnold Prinsloo, CEO of Eskort, explained that the pork market is highly sensitive, noting South Africa slaughters roughly 72,000 pigs weekly. “Even a 2% shortage can drive price increases of around 10%,” he said.

Implications for Inflation and the Pork Industry

The surge in pork prices in South Africa adds pressure to already elevated meat inflation, a key driver of overall food costs. In December 2025, meat inflation rose to 12.6% year-on-year, up from 12.2% in November, per Stats SA data. Economists at Nedbank have cautioned that double-digit meat price inflation could persist until April 2026 due to ongoing FMD and ASF impacts.

These outbreaks follow a period of surplus stock that buffered prices, but that reserve is now depleted. While ASF and FMD pose no risk to human health, they affect animal welfare and market stability. SAPPO emphasises that pork through formal channels remains safe under the Meat Safety Act’s veterinary inspections. The diseases, traditionally more associated with cattle for FMD, highlight vulnerabilities in intensive pig farming where viruses can amplify quickly if biosecurity lapses.

Industry and Authority Responses

SAPPO is actively engaging with national and provincial veterinary authorities to approve FMD-designated abattoirs for controlled slaughter of healthy animals from affected sites. The organisation is also updating contingency plans and developing on-farm vaccination protocols. Dr Thandi Chiappero, SAPPO veterinarian, stated additional outbreaks are likely given high viral loads in affected areas. No immediate responses from government officials were available as of 12 February 2026, despite outreach attempts.

The pork industry urges producers to enforce strict biosecurity, including limiting farm access and immediate reporting of symptoms. These measures aim to contain spread and restore supply, though tighter pork availability is expected throughout 2026. Export status for affected facilities remains suspended, limiting international trade.