South Africans have enjoyed a break from load shedding lately, but energy experts are warning that the calm could be temporary. BusinessTech reports that the risk of rolling blackouts returning by the end of the decade remains high unless urgent action is taken now.

Eskom Flags Risk in 2029 and 2030

Eskom’s Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook for 2026 to 2030, published in October 2025, warns that load shedding is likely to return. In the document, Eskom refers to “unserved energy” rather than load shedding. It describes this as electricity demand the system cannot supply. In simple terms, it is a blackout.

The outlook indicates a high likelihood of unserved energy in 2029 and 2030. Eskom says generation inadequacy is the main driver across scenarios and years.

Coal Retirements Could Open a Supply Gap

Eskom links the rising risk to the planned retirement of 5.26GW of coal capacity, with unserved energy levels starting to increase in 2029. The utility effectively warns that shutting down coal-fired power stations will introduce a temporary supply gap that pushes the risk upwards.

Synthesis Power Solutions director Thomas Garner says the structural issues in the electricity sector have not gone away just because load shedding has eased. He points to the planned decommissioning of ageing coal stations while electricity demand is expected to rise.

Renewables and Storage Seen as the Fastest Fix

Garner names Camden, Grootvlei and Hendrina as coal stations that still contribute heavily to the grid but cannot be relied on after 2029. He argues that new coal is not a viable solution given cost and long build times and that nuclear has long lead times too.

He says renewables and battery storage offer the fastest path to new capacity, pointing to strong growth in behind-the-meter solar in recent years. He also notes improvements at Eskom, including higher plant availability and reduced diesel use, but warns that without faster grid expansion, more renewables and storage and full unbundling, load shedding could return.