South African motorists have had a rare win at the pumps to start 2026 and early forecasts suggest the relief could keep going into February. Still, the numbers can swing fast, so it’s smart to treat any “expected” change as provisional until the official announcement lands.

Why Prices Dropped in Early 2026

Energy analyst, Roland Tatnall, explains petrol prices are mainly driven by two forces, the international crude oil price and the rand to dollar exchange rate. Right now both have been leaning in motorists’ favour. He pointed to Brent crude trading at around $60 a barrel, down from about $80 at the start of 2025, which has fed into lower local pump prices.

He also flagged the obvious risk South Africans know too well: currency volatility. If the rand weakens, fuel can jump even if oil stays calm. If oil rebounds, prices rise even if the rand behaves. In other words, this relief is real, but it is not guaranteed to stick.

What Motorists are Paying Now

A comparison of inland petrol 95 prices shows how meaningful the drop has been over three months. In October 2025, petrol 95 inland was R21.63 per litre. By January 2026, it had dropped to R20.75 per litre. That shift translates into real savings at the bowser, including about R70.40 less to fill an 80-litre tank compared with October.

What February Could Look Like

Central Energy Fund tracking data suggests more petrol price relief may land in February if current conditions hold. The latest numbers point to petrol 93 dropping by about 20 cents per litre and petrol 95 dropping by about 97 cents per litre, while diesel could fall by roughly 120 to 132 cents per litre depending on the grade. The same tracking notes petrol prices are already more than R1.50 per litre lower than a year ago and further cuts could also ease inflation pressure.

For now, the smart move is to treat February’s figures as a strong signal, not a promise. The official pump price changes only lock in once the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources announces them.