South Africans are feeling the financial shock of the Israel-US-Iran war through rising fuel prices, with low-income commuters among the hardest hit. The pressure is already showing in daily travel costs, household budgets and fears of even higher food prices.

One example is Angel Mbatsha, a domestic worker and single mother from Nyanga, who now pays R16 more a day for transport after the conflict pushed up fuel costs. She spends R106 a day on three taxis to travel 38 kilometres to work in Glencairn, about a quarter of her wage.

That burden is not unique. A World Bank report cited in the article found that South Africa’s low-income commuters can spend up to half their income on transport. With another fuel levy change looming in June, the squeeze could get worse.

Why South Africa is so exposed

The core argument is simple: South Africa is deeply vulnerable because it depends heavily on oil priced on global markets. The country produces almost no oil of its own, meaning fuel is imported or refined from crude bought internationally. When conflict drives up prices abroad, local consumers feel it fast.

The article argues that this dependence on fossil fuels makes the economy fragile, because higher oil prices ripple through transport, food and other essentials. It contrasts that with renewable energy, which it says can offer more stable, locally produced electricity at lower cost.

Debate grows over oil and gas path

The piece is also sharply critical of government’s continued support for oil and gas expansion. It points to comments by Minerals and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe, who has argued that local oil and gas development would improve energy security and reduce energy poverty.

But the authors challenge that view, saying domestic oil production would still leave South Africa exposed to volatile global pricing. They also note that oil and gas projects take years to develop, while wind and solar can be rolled out much faster.

Renewables framed as the alternative

CSIR data shows that Eskom’s average electricity cost is far higher than the price of new wind and solar power. Other modelling suggests that a renewables-led path could support more jobs than the coal sector currently does.

Cheaper renewable electricity will not bring immediate relief to commuters already hit by rising transport costs. But it could help build a stronger, more resilient economy that is less exposed to global fuel shocks. South Africa cannot control wars abroad, but it can choose whether to remain vulnerable to oil price swings or move faster towards cleaner, locally produced energy.